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Bayesian interpretation of the ESMO guideline for localized colorectal cancer: a better IDEA

      The 2020 European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) guideline for localized colorectal cancer
      • Argilés G.
      • Tabernero J.
      • Labianca R.
      • et al.
      Localised colon cancer: ESMO Clinical Practice Guidelines for diagnosis, treatment and follow-up.
      introduces the possibility of shortening the duration of adjuvant chemotherapy based on the data from the pooled analysis of six randomized, phase III trials [International Duration Evaluation of Adjuvant Chemotherapy (IDEA) collaboration].
      • André T.
      • Meyerhardt J.
      • Iveson T.
      • et al.
      Effect of duration of adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with stage III colon cancer (IDEA collaboration): final results from a prospective, pooled analysis of six randomised, phase 3 trials.
      However, the writing of this recommendation leads the reader to question the strength of the analysis. The recommendation is based on results of a study that failed to reach its primary endpoint. This suggests that we reflect on the suitability of frequentist learning for certain relevant clinical applications.
      • Greenland S.
      • Hofman A.
      Multiple comparisons controversies are about context and costs, not frequentism versus Bayesianism.
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      References

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        Localised colon cancer: ESMO Clinical Practice Guidelines for diagnosis, treatment and follow-up.
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        • Meyerhardt J.
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        Multiple comparisons controversies are about context and costs, not frequentism versus Bayesianism.
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